Daily Kickoff – Jewish Insider, October 10, 2024

With the November election less than a month away ,  we’re focusing our attention on the under-the-radar — but highly consequential — battle for the House, where the GOP’s narrow majority is hanging in the balance and will be determined by a small number of battleground-district races,  Jewish Insider  Editor-in-Chief Josh Kraushaar writes.

As we’ve noted,  Jewish voters make up a political force in about one-fourth of the 42 most-competitive House races ( as designated by the  Cook Political Report  ratings). 

According to a new analysis published last month by the Jewish Electorate Institute,  Jewish voters comprise a significant percentage of the electorate in two New York districts — 19% in the Westchester County-based seat held by Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) and 14% of the vote in the Long Island-based seat held by Rep. Anthony D’Esposito (R-NY).

Lawler’s district has the fifth-largest share of Jewish voters in the country,  while D’Esposito’s district ranks eighth. The other politically competitive district to rank in the top 25 of largest Jewishrepresentation is the lower Hudson Valley district of Rep. Pat Ryan (D-NY), where 10% of the district’s voters are Jewish. Another district of note: The suburban Phoenix seat of Rep. Dave Schweikert (R-AZ), where about 9% of the district voters are Jewish.

The next tier of districts all feature around 4-5% Jewishrepresentation,  which could certainly make the difference in close contests. The suburban Las Vegas seat of Rep. Susie Lee (D-NV) is next on the list, followed by the Los Angeles-area seat of Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA), the northern New Jersey seat of Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) and the exurban New York seat of Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY).

Rounding out the list of lawmakers representing swing districts  with politically pivotal Jewish constituencies are: Rep. Susan Wild (D-PA) in Pennsylvania’s Lehigh Valley, Rep. Chris Deluzio (D-PA) outside Pittsburgh and Jahana Hayes (D-CT) in suburban Connecticut — along with the open Orange County, Calif., seat of outgoing Rep. Katie Porter (D-CA).

There’s little doubt  that lawmakers’ support for the U.S.-Israel alliance and commitment to fight against antisemitism could make a difference in what are expected to be close contests. 

For instance:  Lawler’s leadership on  issues of concern  to the Jewish community has given him a good chance to win a second term, even though his district comfortably backed President Joe Biden in 2020. His Democratic opponent, former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY), has also been a vocal supporter of Israel of late — and was one of the more prominent Democrats to speak out against neighboring anti-Israel Rep. Jamaal Bowman (D-NY) in his bid for reelection.

Over the next month,  we’ll be profiling many of these critical races — and reporting closely on the lawmakers’ records, their challengers and the salience of Middle East policy and antisemitism on the campaign trail. With the battle for the House potentially coming down to a few seats, the impact of the Jewish vote has rarely been greater.