September 2024 Analysis of National Survey of Jewish Voters

The latest Jewish Electorate Institute survey gives Democrats a commanding 71 percent to 23 percent advantage among Jewish voters on the generic congressional ballot, virtually unchanged from its March poll. Sixty-nine percent identify as Democrats, while 24 percent identify as Republicans.  The same poll contains a less comfortable set of numbers, though: 57 percent of Jewish voters overall say antisemitism is increasing within the Democratic Party, while 35 percent of Jewish Democrats say the rise of anti-Israel Democratic candidates has made it harder for them personally to identify as Democrats. The votes may still be staying Democratic, but for some Jewish voters, identification with the party is becoming more complicated.

Our latest JEI poll shows American Jews are still overwhelmingly pro-Israel but also very critical of Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu. A majority are concerned that Netanyahu’s actions have increased antisemitic and anti-Israel sentiment. While this is more prevalent among Democrats, even a third of GOP Jews are greatly concerned. This poll also shows the divisions on some recent hot button issues. For instance, most Democrats support cutting aid to Israel, while majorities of independents and Republicans are opposed. There is also a division on the recent pro-Israel action in primary elections – with over a third of Jews feeling it has made things worse, while an increasing plurality feel it is more important than ever. Jews Are Pro-Israel But Very Critical Of Netanyahu, Though Not Focused On The Upcoming Israeli Election An overwhelming 86% of American Jews identify themselves as Pro-Israel, including 65% saying they are pro-Israel but critical of some or many of Israeli government policies. This is barely changed from the March JEI poll which showed 86% pro-Israel and 63% critical. Nearly three quarters (71%) see Israel favorably compared to 25% unfavorably – barely changed from March (71%/24%). At the same time, 61% have an unfavorable view of Netanyahu, with 34% favorable. This is within a point of Netanyahu’s standing from the JEI post-election poll in November 2024 which showed 33% favorable, 61% unfavorable. While 80% of American Jews are following the November elections in the U.S., only 38% are following the October elections in Israel. They do, however, have a strong preference in the outcome with 60% wanting Netanyahu replaced, including 53% feeling strongly. Only 16% of American Jews want to see him reelected. A Majority Are Concerned Netanyahu Has Increased Anti-Semitic And Anti-Israel Feelings Nearly half of American Jews are concerned about antisemitic rhetoric in the Republican (48% a great deal of concern) and Democratic (44%) Parties. Even among partisans roughly three in ten are greatly concerned about antisemitic rhetoric within their own party, with 29% of Republicans saying that about the GOP and 34% of Democrats saying it about their party. A 56% majority of Jews have a great deal of concern that “Israel’s actions under Netanyahu have increased antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiment in the U.S.” Two thirds (65%) of Democratic Jews feel this way, and nearly half (46%) of independents and a third (34%) of Republicans. Most Democrats Would Cut Aid To Israel, But Republicans & Independents Are Opposed A 52% majority of Jews support cutting or eliminating aid to Israel, with 17% supporting “eliminating all $3.3 billion in military aid that the U.S. provides Israel” and 36% preferring to cut but not eliminate aid. Four in ten (40%) would keep aid at current levels, with 8% not sure. There are stark differences on partisanship, with nearly two thirds of Democrats (63%) wanting to cut or eliminate aid, and a similar two thirds of Republicans (67%) and independents (65%) for keeping current levels. Four in ten (40%) Jews are concerned about Congressional support for eliminating aid for “defensive weapons like Iron Dome” (40%), only slightly higher than concern for eliminating “offensive weapons” (36%). A majority of Republicans are concerned about cuts to either offensive (54%) or defensive weapon (56%), while less than half of independents are concerned (44% defensive, 45% offensive) and only a third of Democrats (34% defensive, 29% offensive.) Still there is more of a cost for a Member of Congress voting to cut aid, than a benefit. Nearly half (47%) are less likely to support a Member voting to cut aid, including 36% of those who support cutting aid themselves. Only one in five (21%) are more likely to vote for a Member cutting aid. Even among those who support cuts, only 13% are more likely to support a Member voting that way. Views On AIPAC And The Recent Primary Battles Are Mixed, Even Among Democrats A majority (51%) of American Jews have heard at least something about pro-Israel activity in this year’s primary elections – up from 38% in March. However, higher awareness has not dramatically changed opinions. A narrow 39% plurality support the pro-Israel activity in the primaries, 35% oppose it, and 26% are unsure; very similar to March (37% support, 32% oppose, 31% not sure). Given a choice between two statements, 45% believe “With increasing anti-Israel sentiment and threats to Israel, it is more important than ever for pro-Israel groups to play an active role against candidates who are not supportive enough of a strong US-Israel relationship”, while 37% believe that “These heavy-handed efforts by pro-Israel groups in primary elections make things worse by turning voters against a strong US-Israel relationship, and they should stop.” Large majorities of Republicans and independents believe it more important than ever for pro-Israel groups to get involved in the primaries. But while Democrats lean the other way, they are more torn – with 46% saying the pro-Israel activity is making things worse, but the majority of Democrats either think it’s more important than ever (34%) or are not sure (20%). Indeed, views of AIPAC, the biggest pro-Israel spender in primaries, are mixed, with 42% favorable, 35% unfavorable, and 24% not sure. AIPAC is seen favorably by most independents (55% favorable, 15% unfavorable) and Republicans (71% favorable, 12% unfavorable). Jewish Democrats are 44% unfavorable, with a majority either favorable (31%) or not sure (25%). Moreover, Democratic Jews do not fit easily into one box on AIPAC. Nearly half (45%) agree with the statement “AIPAC is being unfairly singled out for doing just what other advocacy groups do”. Yet 30% agree they cannot vote for a candidate who accepts money from AIPAC, while 19% cannot support a candidate who refuses money from AIPAC. While American Jews are generally together on being pro-Israel even if critical of the government, there are divisions on what should be done in the U.S. on aid and elections.