Jews in the Middle: Who Are the Jewish Independent Voters?

March 9, 2021

READ ON MOMENTMAG.COM

1. The Jewish vote is in. Again. 

So much has happened since Americans went to the polls four months ago, and quite frankly, no one misses the days leading up to the election.

But let’s try to take just one more look at the eternal question bewildering the Jewish world ever since: How did the Jews vote?

The issue was  discussed, argued and debated  back in November, with the same decades-old storyline. Yes, Jewish Americans once again voted overwhelmingly for the Democrats, but was there a shift in voting trends? Professional Jewish Democrats and Republicans will continue debating this question until the cows come home (or at least until their donors agree that results trend in a way that proves their success). 

But there’s another way of looking at the Jewish vote.

The American Jewish Population Project at Brandeis University compiled, at the request of the nonpartisan Jewish Electorate Institute, an  analysis of the Jewish vote  based on the broadest available database of voter information.

The report goes a little deeper than most post-election surveys and provides an insight into the voting pattern of Jews in eight key states, as well as a very interesting look into Jewish voters who define themselves as independents.

According to the  report , 32 percent of Jewish American voters are independent, meaning they are not affiliated with either party. This makes independents the second largest political group among Jewish voters, after Democratic (50 percent) and way more than Republicans (16 percent).

2. Who are Jewish independents?

Being independent is not synonymous with being a swing voter.

Forty-five percent of Jewish independents lean toward the Democratic side, 39 percent lean Republican and only 16 percent say they have “no lean,” meaning they could go either Democratic or Republican.

Why would Jewish voters choose to be independent and not identify with the party they lean toward?

The most common way of interpreting political independence is seeing it as representing the gap between the belief in a certain ideology, and support for the party that advances this ideology. For example, one may like low taxes and small government economic policies, but not be a big fan of the GOP, which fights for these issues. This person will likely vote Republican, but would rather not carry the burden of the party’s entire set of beliefs.

For most members of the group, being independent provides space for deniability. It means they do not have to commit to supporting everything the party stands for, or every action it takes.

In the case of Jewish independents, deniability could be key in several major areas: support for Israel (as in, “yes, we vote for Biden but won’t affiliate ourselves with the Democratic Party because of Ilhan Omar’s views on Israel”); progressiveness (“as true Bernie liberals we cannot be part of a party led by Biden and Pelosi”); and Trump (“sure, we believe in the GOP’s fiscal policies, but not in the party that elected Trump as its nominee”).

For practical purposes, these independents are not all that different from any other voter who identifies as either Democratic or Republican. 

But the small subset of independents who are truly undecided could make a difference, and according to the data presented in the new report, Jewish independents may have played a key role in the past two election cycles.

Authors of the paper looked at the key battleground states.

In Michigan, there are roughly 37,000 Jewish voters who define themselves as independents. Of them, 15 percent, or 5,500 voters, are true “no lean” independents. Michigan went to Trump in 2016 by a margin of just over 10,000 votes. It’s easy to see how swinging Jewish voters could have helped make this happen.

Trump won Florida by 371,000 votes in November, but what if Biden would have been more successful with the roughly 46,000 Jewish independents who have no particular leaning?

Or, take a look at Wisconsin. There are 14,000 independent Jewish voters in the state, 18 percent of whom have no leaning. That means more than 2,500 Jewish votes up for grabs. Hillary Clinton lost the state by 22,000 votes in 2016 and Biden won it by 20,000. Think just how important these 2,500 Jews were in making the difference.

These numbers could make parties rethink their discourse with Jewish voters in swing states. Targeting Jewish voters as a whole as either Democrats (with ‘tikkun olam’ talk on social justice and immigration,) or die-hard Republicans (with endless Israel-related messaging,) likely misses those very few—but all so important—undecided independent Jewish voters, who could eventually swing the state.

3. Young, Jewish and independent

Another noteworthy aspect of Jewish political independents is age.

The younger you are, the more likely you are not to be affiliated with either party. Forty-two percent of Jews between the ages of 18-24 are independents. The percentage declines consistently with older age groups. Among Jewish voters over 65, only 27 percent describe themselves as independent.

This shouldn’t come as a huge surprise.

Younger people are less inclined to affiliate with any institution, let alone one of two establishment parties.

The Jewish community knows this all too well and has experienced the exact same phenomenon with young members. They tend to affiliate less with denominations, synagogues and organizations, making for the eventual decline of many legacy institutions. Political parties are just another victim of younger Jewish American’s disdain for old-time establishments.

4.  Why Israel’s upcoming election may matter to American Jews

You think you’re tired of talking about American politics? How about having to, for the fourth time in two years, dig into the ins and outs of Israeli elections?

By now, everyone knows the drill: The elections are all about Netanyahu.

On the one side, there’s the Bibi camp, made up of his Likud Party, the right-wing settlers and the ultra-Orthodox. They all want everything to remain just as it’s been, and are touting Netanyahu’s role in securing millions of coronavirus vaccines—making Israel the world leader in vaccinations—as a reason to reelect him.

On the other side is the anti-Bibi camp, ranging from Arab parties, moderate leftists, the reinvented Labor, neo-liberals, centrist generals and newly found disillusioned Likudniks. They all share the belief that Netanyahu, facing a trial on three counts of corruption-related charges, can no longer lead the country. Apart from that, they agree on nothing.

There are many details, nuances and scenarios, but they all have little to do with the lives of Jewish Americans.

Except for one. Perhaps.

Last week, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled in favor of granting citizenship to non-Jewish residents who undergo Reform or Conservative conversion to Judaism.

It’s a tiny step in a years-long battle over the recognition of non-Orthodox Jewish denominations in Israel. (Ben Sales, at  JTA , has a great explainer on what the ruling means.)

This brings us back to the upcoming elections.

The fierce reaction from Israel’s Orthodox parties (including, comparing non-Orthodox Jews to  dogs , courtesy of United Torah Judaism, a coalition partner of Netanyahu) and of Netanyahu himself, who called the ruling “very troubling” and of politicians from his party vowing to overturn the ruling, served as an important reminder that American Jews—who are largely Reform and Conservative—have skin in this game.

The March 23 elections will determine Israel’s path forward on many aspects, some of them pivotal to its security and democracy. But they will also signal the direction the nation chooses when it comes to its relationship with the Jewish diaspora, and that’s a good enough reason to keep a close watch.

5. What are Jared and Ivanka up to?

Kushner, according to  reports,  is taking a break and is no longer part of the inner circle advising his father-in-law, former president Donald Trump.

Ivanka Trump, has made clear she  will not seek  Marco Rubio’s Senate seat, but she may be aiming for  higher places. According to another report, Donald Trump is considering his daughter Ivanka as a potential 2024 running mate.

Pulse of The Jewish Voter Amidst Iran War Shows Engagement In A Host of Issues

April 15, 2026
U.S. JEWS VOTING DEM IN CONGRESS MIDTERMS YET QUESTION WHAT PARTY STANDS FOR, ESP. ON ISRAEL JEWISH R ’ s MOST ID ’ d AS PRO-ISRAEL, NEW POLL SHOWS United in Support of Israel ’ s Right to Exist as Jewish Homeland But Mixed Concepts of Zionism Jews see too much Israel criticism playing into antisemitism While most Jews feel too many Israel supporters use antisemitism claims to avoid legitimate policy debate WASHINGTON – The latest Jewish Electorate Institute (JEI) poll shows American Jews are voting heavily Democratic in the midterm election for Congress. At the same time, Jews have questions about what the Democratic Party stands for, particularly on Israel. Jewish Republicans, on the other hand, are most identified as being pro-Israel, which is also one of their biggest image advantages over Democrats. Meanwhile, amid debates in the Jewish community over Israel, war in Iran and election politics, American Jews are united in support of Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state and homeland for the Jewish people. However, there are mixed signals over the concept of Zionism, with the majority seeing Zionism favorably, but only a third calling themselves Zionists. There is also concern about how antisemitism is becoming a part of the increasingly heated discussions over U.S.-Israel issues, by both sides. A large majority of U.S. Jews see too many critics of Israel using language about Jews that play into antisemitism, whether intended or not. At the same time, a majority of Jews feel too many supporters of Israel use claims of antisemitism to avoid legitimate debate over policy. These analyses are based on the final release of the findings of a national survey of 800 Jewish registered voters, with an oversample to yield 600 Jewish women. The survey was conducted for JEI by The Mellman Group using a high-quality online national panel from March 13-23, 2026. The margin of error for the sample as a whole is +/- 3.5% at the 95% level of confidence (higher for subgroups). Previous JEI analyses and releases centered on U.S. Jews’ pro-Israel identity and their criticism of the government, support for pro-Israel spending in the primaries and the popularity of AIPAC, DMFI and J Street. Also, on what American Jews would likely discuss at the Passover seder tables.

JEI's Spring 2026 Latest Poll

April 15, 2026
Jewish Voters Highly Engaged, Prioritize Domestic Issues; Strong Support for Israel and Caution on Military Action and Advocacy This recent March 2026 national survey finds that American Jewish adults overwhelmingly affirm Israel’s right to exist while also expressing caution about the current U.S. military escalation in Iran. Views on pro-Israel political spending, however, remain mixed. AIPAC has an overall favorable impression of 39%, DMFI 32%, and J Street 18%. Some key findings also include the following: Turnout and partisanship: Registered respondents report their very high intention to turn out for the November 2026 midterm elections. About seven in ten identify as Democrats (many strongly), roughly one in four compared to Republicans, with the remainder being made up of Independents. Democrats hold a substantial advantage in hypothetical congressional votes in respondents’ districts. Donald Trump receives broad net disapproval, and Benjamin Netanyahu is viewed unfavorably by more respondents than favorably. Israel and Zionism: There are mixed signals over the concept of Zionism, with the majority seeing Zionism favorably, but only a third calling themselves Zionists. Roughly seven in ten hold a favorable view of Israel; 87% endorse Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish homeland. Most see Zionism as Jewish self‑determination, though only a third self‑identify as Zionist. A surprisingly large number are unsure about the definition of Zionism. Foreign policy and military action: A majority of respondents oppose current U.S. military action against Iran and say the president should have sought congressional approval for strikes. Many prioritize preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons but favor clear objectives and oversight over unilateral escalation. 2026 Midterm Elections & Party Affiliations: American Jews are voting heavily Democratic in the midterm election for Congress. At the same time, Jews have questions about what the Democratic Party stands for, particularly on Israel. Jewish Republicans are most identified as pro-Israel, which is one of their biggest image advantages over Democrats. Pro‑Israel advocacy and spending: Opinions are split on outside groups spending in primaries—about a third support such spending, a third oppose it, and many are undecided. Respondents are nearly evenly divided on whether aggressive outside intervention helps or harms U.S.–Israel relations. Antisemitism and public debate: A large majority say some criticism of Israel slips into antisemitic tropes, and a significant share also believes some defenders wrongly label policy criticism as antisemitism. There is also concern about how antisemitism is becoming a part of the increasingly heated discussions over U.S.-Israel issues, by both sides. A large majority of U.S. Jews see too many critics of Israel using language about Jews that plays into antisemitism, whether intended or not. At the same time, a majority of Jews feel too many supporters of Israel use claims of antisemitism to avoid legitimate debate over policy. Domestic Issues are Important: Democrats are viewed positively on healthcare, abortion rights, fair elections, and middle class advocacy, while Republicans are viewed as pro-Israel but excessively conservative and unwilling to oppose the President. The sample of respondents: The current distribution of Jewish voters by party affiliation: 69% Democratic, 24% Republican, and 7% Independent. Poll respondents are mixed gender, highly educated, and religiously plural within Judaism (Reform and unaffiliated are the largest). About one‑third belong to a synagogue, but religious practice varies. Jewish women Voters: There are more female Democrats likely to hold reinforcing views, contributing to the party's electoral advantage, thereby fueling the midterm margin. The partisan divide is even larger among women. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of Jewish women identify as Democrats, including 50% who are strong Democrats, and 24% who identify as Democratic Socialists. Likely Jewish women voters are supporting the Democrats in the generic vote: 78% Democratic, 19% Republican, and only 3% undecided. The Democratic vote margin increases significantly with age among Jewish women. Women ages 18-29 vote +46 Democratic, rising to +60 among those 40–59 and +58 among those 60 and older. These margins exceed those of the overall Jewish electorate, where voters ages 40–59 and 60+ both register a +48 Democratic advantage. The strength of Jewish identity also follows a consistent pattern. Among women who place lower importance on being Jewish, the Democratic advantage is +74, compared to +61 among the overall electorate. Among those who place higher importance on being Jewish, Jewish women still lean more Democratic than the overall electorate, at +41 versus +36. Jewish women are also more likely to disapprove of Trump’s job performance and the current U.S. military action against Iran. They are four points more likely than the overall electorate to disapprove of Trump’s job performance (77% vs. 73%) and the U.S. military action in Iran (59% vs. 55%). Jewish voters combine strong civic engagement and a clear Democratic preference with nuanced views that favor protecting Israel while insisting on democratic oversight, strategic clarity, and careful political tactics. Well-positioned issues that resonate for candidates and organizations in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections include emphasizing support for Israel alongside respect for congressional authority, clear policy goals, and sensitive messaging on antisemitism. "This poll reinforces a simple truth that the Jewish community is not monolithic, and the Jewish vote should not be taken for granted. Their concerns extend beyond Israel and Iran. It also indicates a critical need for education about Israel's history and the meaning of Zionism. These needs have never been more urgent than they are today," said Barbara Goldberg Goldman, JEI Chair. These analyses are based on the final release of the findings of a national survey of 800 Jewish registered voters, with an oversample to yield 600 Jewish women. The survey was conducted for JEI by The Mellman Group using a high-quality online national panel from March 13-23, 2026. The margin of error for the sample as a whole is +/- 3.5% at the 95% level of confidence (higher for subgroups).

JTA: Most American Jews oppose AIPAC spending in Democratic primaries, survey finds

April 14, 2026
The survey was released one week after another conducted by the Mellman Group and commissioned by the Jewish Electorate Institute found that a majority of American Jews have “not heard much” about the role that pro-Israel lobbying groups have played in this year’s early midterm primaries.  The poll, which surveyed 800 registered Jewish voters March 13-23, found that just 11% of American Jews had heard a “great deal” about “the role pro-Israel groups have played in the early 2026 primaries,” while 27% said they’d heard “some” about it. Meanwhile, 62% said they’d either heard “not much,” “none at all” or that they don’t know.