Jews in the Middle: Who Are the Jewish Independent Voters?

March 9, 2021

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1. The Jewish vote is in. Again. 

So much has happened since Americans went to the polls four months ago, and quite frankly, no one misses the days leading up to the election.

But let’s try to take just one more look at the eternal question bewildering the Jewish world ever since: How did the Jews vote?

The issue was  discussed, argued and debated  back in November, with the same decades-old storyline. Yes, Jewish Americans once again voted overwhelmingly for the Democrats, but was there a shift in voting trends? Professional Jewish Democrats and Republicans will continue debating this question until the cows come home (or at least until their donors agree that results trend in a way that proves their success). 

But there’s another way of looking at the Jewish vote.

The American Jewish Population Project at Brandeis University compiled, at the request of the nonpartisan Jewish Electorate Institute, an  analysis of the Jewish vote  based on the broadest available database of voter information.

The report goes a little deeper than most post-election surveys and provides an insight into the voting pattern of Jews in eight key states, as well as a very interesting look into Jewish voters who define themselves as independents.

According to the  report, 32 percent of Jewish American voters are independent, meaning they are not affiliated with either party. This makes independents the second largest political group among Jewish voters, after Democratic (50 percent) and way more than Republicans (16 percent).

2. Who are Jewish independents?

Being independent is not synonymous with being a swing voter.

Forty-five percent of Jewish independents lean toward the Democratic side, 39 percent lean Republican and only 16 percent say they have “no lean,” meaning they could go either Democratic or Republican.

Why would Jewish voters choose to be independent and not identify with the party they lean toward?

The most common way of interpreting political independence is seeing it as representing the gap between the belief in a certain ideology, and support for the party that advances this ideology. For example, one may like low taxes and small government economic policies, but not be a big fan of the GOP, which fights for these issues. This person will likely vote Republican, but would rather not carry the burden of the party’s entire set of beliefs.

For most members of the group, being independent provides space for deniability. It means they do not have to commit to supporting everything the party stands for, or every action it takes.

In the case of Jewish independents, deniability could be key in several major areas: support for Israel (as in, “yes, we vote for Biden but won’t affiliate ourselves with the Democratic Party because of Ilhan Omar’s views on Israel”); progressiveness (“as true Bernie liberals we cannot be part of a party led by Biden and Pelosi”); and Trump (“sure, we believe in the GOP’s fiscal policies, but not in the party that elected Trump as its nominee”).

For practical purposes, these independents are not all that different from any other voter who identifies as either Democratic or Republican. 

But the small subset of independents who are truly undecided could make a difference, and according to the data presented in the new report, Jewish independents may have played a key role in the past two election cycles.

Authors of the paper looked at the key battleground states.

In Michigan, there are roughly 37,000 Jewish voters who define themselves as independents. Of them, 15 percent, or 5,500 voters, are true “no lean” independents. Michigan went to Trump in 2016 by a margin of just over 10,000 votes. It’s easy to see how swinging Jewish voters could have helped make this happen.

Trump won Florida by 371,000 votes in November, but what if Biden would have been more successful with the roughly 46,000 Jewish independents who have no particular leaning?

Or, take a look at Wisconsin. There are 14,000 independent Jewish voters in the state, 18 percent of whom have no leaning. That means more than 2,500 Jewish votes up for grabs. Hillary Clinton lost the state by 22,000 votes in 2016 and Biden won it by 20,000. Think just how important these 2,500 Jews were in making the difference.

These numbers could make parties rethink their discourse with Jewish voters in swing states. Targeting Jewish voters as a whole as either Democrats (with ‘tikkun olam’ talk on social justice and immigration,) or die-hard Republicans (with endless Israel-related messaging,) likely misses those very few—but all so important—undecided independent Jewish voters, who could eventually swing the state.

3. Young, Jewish and independent

Another noteworthy aspect of Jewish political independents is age.

The younger you are, the more likely you are not to be affiliated with either party. Forty-two percent of Jews between the ages of 18-24 are independents. The percentage declines consistently with older age groups. Among Jewish voters over 65, only 27 percent describe themselves as independent.

This shouldn’t come as a huge surprise.

Younger people are less inclined to affiliate with any institution, let alone one of two establishment parties.

The Jewish community knows this all too well and has experienced the exact same phenomenon with young members. They tend to affiliate less with denominations, synagogues and organizations, making for the eventual decline of many legacy institutions. Political parties are just another victim of younger Jewish American’s disdain for old-time establishments.

4.  Why Israel’s upcoming election may matter to American Jews

You think you’re tired of talking about American politics? How about having to, for the fourth time in two years, dig into the ins and outs of Israeli elections?

By now, everyone knows the drill: The elections are all about Netanyahu.

On the one side, there’s the Bibi camp, made up of his Likud Party, the right-wing settlers and the ultra-Orthodox. They all want everything to remain just as it’s been, and are touting Netanyahu’s role in securing millions of coronavirus vaccines—making Israel the world leader in vaccinations—as a reason to reelect him.

On the other side is the anti-Bibi camp, ranging from Arab parties, moderate leftists, the reinvented Labor, neo-liberals, centrist generals and newly found disillusioned Likudniks. They all share the belief that Netanyahu, facing a trial on three counts of corruption-related charges, can no longer lead the country. Apart from that, they agree on nothing.

There are many details, nuances and scenarios, but they all have little to do with the lives of Jewish Americans.

Except for one. Perhaps.

Last week, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled in favor of granting citizenship to non-Jewish residents who undergo Reform or Conservative conversion to Judaism.

It’s a tiny step in a years-long battle over the recognition of non-Orthodox Jewish denominations in Israel. (Ben Sales, at  JTA, has a great explainer on what the ruling means.)

This brings us back to the upcoming elections.

The fierce reaction from Israel’s Orthodox parties (including, comparing non-Orthodox Jews to  dogs, courtesy of United Torah Judaism, a coalition partner of Netanyahu) and of Netanyahu himself, who called the ruling “very troubling” and of politicians from his party vowing to overturn the ruling, served as an important reminder that American Jews—who are largely Reform and Conservative—have skin in this game.

The March 23 elections will determine Israel’s path forward on many aspects, some of them pivotal to its security and democracy. But they will also signal the direction the nation chooses when it comes to its relationship with the Jewish diaspora, and that’s a good enough reason to keep a close watch.

5. What are Jared and Ivanka up to?

Kushner, according to  reports,  is taking a break and is no longer part of the inner circle advising his father-in-law, former president Donald Trump.

Ivanka Trump, has made clear she  will not seek  Marco Rubio’s Senate seat, but she may be aiming for  higher places. According to another report, Donald Trump is considering his daughter Ivanka as a potential 2024 running mate.

Newsweek: Political Smoke Alarm... Jewish Voter Identification Becoming More Complicated

October 1, 2026
The latest Jewish Electorate Institute survey gives Democrats a commanding 71 percent to 23 percent advantage among Jewish voters on the generic congressional ballot, virtually unchanged from its March poll. Sixty-nine percent identify as Democrats, while 24 percent identify as Republicans.  The same poll contains a less comfortable set of numbers, though: 57 percent of Jewish voters overall say antisemitism is increasing within the Democratic Party, while 35 percent of Jewish Democrats say the rise of anti-Israel Democratic candidates has made it harder for them personally to identify as Democrats. The votes may still be staying Democratic, but for some Jewish voters, identification with the party is becoming more complicated.

NEW POLL: What’s on the minds of Jewish Americans today?

September 25, 2026
Our latest JEI poll shows American Jews are still overwhelmingly pro-Israel but also very critical of Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu. A majority are concerned that Netanyahu’s actions have increased antisemitic and anti-Israel sentiment. While this is more prevalent among Democrats, even a third of GOP Jews are greatly concerned. This poll also shows the divisions on some recent hot button issues. For instance, most Democrats support cutting aid to Israel, while majorities of independents and Republicans are opposed. There is also a division on the recent pro-Israel action in primary elections – with over a third of Jews feeling it has made things worse, while an increasing plurality feel it is more important than ever. Jews Are Pro-Israel But Very Critical Of Netanyahu, Though Not Focused On The Upcoming Israeli Election An overwhelming 86% of American Jews identify themselves as Pro-Israel, including 65% saying they are pro-Israel but critical of some or many of Israeli government policies. This is barely changed from the March JEI poll which showed 86% pro-Israel and 63% critical. Nearly three quarters (71%) see Israel favorably compared to 25% unfavorably – barely changed from March (71%/24%). At the same time, 61% have an unfavorable view of Netanyahu, with 34% favorable. This is within a point of Netanyahu’s standing from the JEI post-election poll in November 2024 which showed 33% favorable, 61% unfavorable. While 80% of American Jews are following the November elections in the U.S., only 38% are following the October elections in Israel. They do, however, have a strong preference in the outcome with 60% wanting Netanyahu replaced, including 53% feeling strongly. Only 16% of American Jews want to see him reelected. A Majority Are Concerned Netanyahu Has Increased Anti-Semitic And Anti-Israel Feelings Nearly half of American Jews are concerned about antisemitic rhetoric in the Republican (48% a great deal of concern) and Democratic (44%) Parties. Even among partisans roughly three in ten are greatly concerned about antisemitic rhetoric within their own party, with 29% of Republicans saying that about the GOP and 34% of Democrats saying it about their party. A 56% majority of Jews have a great deal of concern that “Israel’s actions under Netanyahu have increased antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiment in the U.S.” Two thirds (65%) of Democratic Jews feel this way, and nearly half (46%) of independents and a third (34%) of Republicans. Most Democrats Would Cut Aid To Israel, But Republicans & Independents Are Opposed A 52% majority of Jews support cutting or eliminating aid to Israel, with 17% supporting “eliminating all $3.3 billion in military aid that the U.S. provides Israel” and 36% preferring to cut but not eliminate aid. Four in ten (40%) would keep aid at current levels, with 8% not sure. There are stark differences on partisanship, with nearly two thirds of Democrats (63%) wanting to cut or eliminate aid, and a similar two thirds of Republicans (67%) and independents (65%) for keeping current levels. Four in ten (40%) Jews are concerned about Congressional support for eliminating aid for “defensive weapons like Iron Dome” (40%), only slightly higher than concern for eliminating “offensive weapons” (36%). A majority of Republicans are concerned about cuts to either offensive (54%) or defensive weapon (56%), while less than half of independents are concerned (44% defensive, 45% offensive) and only a third of Democrats (34% defensive, 29% offensive.) Still there is more of a cost for a Member of Congress voting to cut aid, than a benefit. Nearly half (47%) are less likely to support a Member voting to cut aid, including 36% of those who support cutting aid themselves. Only one in five (21%) are more likely to vote for a Member cutting aid. Even among those who support cuts, only 13% are more likely to support a Member voting that way. Views On AIPAC And The Recent Primary Battles Are Mixed, Even Among Democrats A majority (51%) of American Jews have heard at least something about pro-Israel activity in this year’s primary elections – up from 38% in March. However, higher awareness has not dramatically changed opinions. A narrow 39% plurality support the pro-Israel activity in the primaries, 35% oppose it, and 26% are unsure; very similar to March (37% support, 32% oppose, 31% not sure). Given a choice between two statements, 45% believe “With increasing anti-Israel sentiment and threats to Israel, it is more important than ever for pro-Israel groups to play an active role against candidates who are not supportive enough of a strong US-Israel relationship”, while 37% believe that “These heavy-handed efforts by pro-Israel groups in primary elections make things worse by turning voters against a strong US-Israel relationship, and they should stop.” Large majorities of Republicans and independents believe it more important than ever for pro-Israel groups to get involved in the primaries. But while Democrats lean the other way, they are more torn – with 46% saying the pro-Israel activity is making things worse, but the majority of Democrats either think it’s more important than ever (34%) or are not sure (20%). Indeed, views of AIPAC, the biggest pro-Israel spender in primaries, are mixed, with 42% favorable, 35% unfavorable, and 24% not sure. AIPAC is seen favorably by most independents (55% favorable, 15% unfavorable) and Republicans (71% favorable, 12% unfavorable). Jewish Democrats are 44% unfavorable, with a majority either favorable (31%) or not sure (25%). Moreover, Democratic Jews do not fit easily into one box on AIPAC. Nearly half (45%) agree with the statement “AIPAC is being unfairly singled out for doing just what other advocacy groups do”. Yet 30% agree they cannot vote for a candidate who accepts money from AIPAC, while 19% cannot support a candidate who refuses money from AIPAC. While American Jews are generally together on being pro-Israel even if critical of the government, there are divisions on what should be done in the U.S. on aid and elections.

JEI Advocates for Right to Worship

September 25, 2026
September 23, 2026 The Honorable Mike Johnson Speaker of the United States House of Representatives United States House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Dear Mr. Speaker: I submit this statement for the record in support of H.R. 10052 and S. 5289, the Right to Worship Act. I am grateful to Representatives Brad Knott, Tom Suozzi, Michael Lawler, and Josh Gottheimer and Senators Ted Cruz and Elissa Slotkin for their bipartisan leadership in introducing this important legislation to protect the fundamental right of Americans to worship without fear, intimidation, or deliberate disruption. For Jewish Americans, this protection is particularly urgent. Synagogues should be places where Jewish families can gather in prayer, celebrate Shabbat and holidays, educate their children, and sustain their communities. No one should have to approach a synagogue wondering whether protesters will block the entrance, intimidate worshippers, prevent families from entering, or deliberately disrupt religious services. The Right to Worship Act recognizes a basic principle of religious liberty: Americans must be able to enter their houses of worship and participate in religious services without being subjected to conduct that meaningfully interferes with their ability to worship. The legislation establishes a narrowly tailored 100-foot protection zone around entrances to houses of worship during scheduled religious services and prohibits knowing conduct that disrupts services or hinders, deters, threatens, or intimidates people seeking to attend. This protection is not about preventing peaceful expression or legitimate public debate. The legislation specifically distinguishes protected expression from conduct that interferes with the ability of people to worship. That distinction is essential. Americans have a constitutional right to express their views, including views with which others strongly disagree. But that right should not be used as a justification for preventing another person from exercising the equally fundamental right to freely practice their religion. The need for this protection is especially clear for Jewish communities. In recent years, Jewish Americans have faced protests, intimidation, threats, and security concerns at and around synagogues and other Jewish institutions. Jewish families should not have to choose between exercising their faith and avoiding confrontation at the doors of their houses of worship. The right to worship is a foundational American freedom. It belongs to Jews, Christians, Muslims, Sikhs, Hindus, and Americans of every faith. Protecting houses of worship therefore is not a special accommodation for any one religious community. It is a protection of religious liberty itself. We also recognize the importance of maintaining the careful balance between religious freedom and the First Amendment's protection of speech and peaceful assembly. The Right to Worship Act addresses that balance by focusing on conduct that actually disrupts religious services or prevents or intimidates individuals from attending them, rather than on the viewpoint or content of someone's speech. We support continued careful consideration of the legislation to ensure that its protections remain clear, appropriately tailored, and consistent with constitutional rights. For Jewish Americans, the ability to walk through the doors of a synagogue and worship openly is not an abstract principle. It is an essential part of Jewish communal life and religious freedom. A Jewish family should be able to attend services on Shabbat or a holiday without being blocked, threatened, intimidated, or made to feel that entering their synagogue is itself an act of confrontation. Religious freedom cannot exist if people are technically free to worship but are effectively prevented from doing so by intimidation or deliberate disruption at the doors of their houses of worship. We strongly support the goals of the Right to Worship Act and urge Congress to advance this bipartisan legislation. Protecting the right of Americans to gather, pray, and practice their faith is a constitutional responsibility and a fundamental American value. The freedom to worship belongs to all of us. Congress should ensure that every American can exercise that freedom without fear. Sincerely,