Jews in the Middle: Who Are the Jewish Independent Voters?

March 9, 2021

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1. The Jewish vote is in. Again. 

So much has happened since Americans went to the polls four months ago, and quite frankly, no one misses the days leading up to the election.

But let’s try to take just one more look at the eternal question bewildering the Jewish world ever since: How did the Jews vote?

The issue was  discussed, argued and debated  back in November, with the same decades-old storyline. Yes, Jewish Americans once again voted overwhelmingly for the Democrats, but was there a shift in voting trends? Professional Jewish Democrats and Republicans will continue debating this question until the cows come home (or at least until their donors agree that results trend in a way that proves their success). 

But there’s another way of looking at the Jewish vote.

The American Jewish Population Project at Brandeis University compiled, at the request of the nonpartisan Jewish Electorate Institute, an  analysis of the Jewish vote  based on the broadest available database of voter information.

The report goes a little deeper than most post-election surveys and provides an insight into the voting pattern of Jews in eight key states, as well as a very interesting look into Jewish voters who define themselves as independents.

According to the  report , 32 percent of Jewish American voters are independent, meaning they are not affiliated with either party. This makes independents the second largest political group among Jewish voters, after Democratic (50 percent) and way more than Republicans (16 percent).

2. Who are Jewish independents?

Being independent is not synonymous with being a swing voter.

Forty-five percent of Jewish independents lean toward the Democratic side, 39 percent lean Republican and only 16 percent say they have “no lean,” meaning they could go either Democratic or Republican.

Why would Jewish voters choose to be independent and not identify with the party they lean toward?

The most common way of interpreting political independence is seeing it as representing the gap between the belief in a certain ideology, and support for the party that advances this ideology. For example, one may like low taxes and small government economic policies, but not be a big fan of the GOP, which fights for these issues. This person will likely vote Republican, but would rather not carry the burden of the party’s entire set of beliefs.

For most members of the group, being independent provides space for deniability. It means they do not have to commit to supporting everything the party stands for, or every action it takes.

In the case of Jewish independents, deniability could be key in several major areas: support for Israel (as in, “yes, we vote for Biden but won’t affiliate ourselves with the Democratic Party because of Ilhan Omar’s views on Israel”); progressiveness (“as true Bernie liberals we cannot be part of a party led by Biden and Pelosi”); and Trump (“sure, we believe in the GOP’s fiscal policies, but not in the party that elected Trump as its nominee”).

For practical purposes, these independents are not all that different from any other voter who identifies as either Democratic or Republican. 

But the small subset of independents who are truly undecided could make a difference, and according to the data presented in the new report, Jewish independents may have played a key role in the past two election cycles.

Authors of the paper looked at the key battleground states.

In Michigan, there are roughly 37,000 Jewish voters who define themselves as independents. Of them, 15 percent, or 5,500 voters, are true “no lean” independents. Michigan went to Trump in 2016 by a margin of just over 10,000 votes. It’s easy to see how swinging Jewish voters could have helped make this happen.

Trump won Florida by 371,000 votes in November, but what if Biden would have been more successful with the roughly 46,000 Jewish independents who have no particular leaning?

Or, take a look at Wisconsin. There are 14,000 independent Jewish voters in the state, 18 percent of whom have no leaning. That means more than 2,500 Jewish votes up for grabs. Hillary Clinton lost the state by 22,000 votes in 2016 and Biden won it by 20,000. Think just how important these 2,500 Jews were in making the difference.

These numbers could make parties rethink their discourse with Jewish voters in swing states. Targeting Jewish voters as a whole as either Democrats (with ‘tikkun olam’ talk on social justice and immigration,) or die-hard Republicans (with endless Israel-related messaging,) likely misses those very few—but all so important—undecided independent Jewish voters, who could eventually swing the state.

3. Young, Jewish and independent

Another noteworthy aspect of Jewish political independents is age.

The younger you are, the more likely you are not to be affiliated with either party. Forty-two percent of Jews between the ages of 18-24 are independents. The percentage declines consistently with older age groups. Among Jewish voters over 65, only 27 percent describe themselves as independent.

This shouldn’t come as a huge surprise.

Younger people are less inclined to affiliate with any institution, let alone one of two establishment parties.

The Jewish community knows this all too well and has experienced the exact same phenomenon with young members. They tend to affiliate less with denominations, synagogues and organizations, making for the eventual decline of many legacy institutions. Political parties are just another victim of younger Jewish American’s disdain for old-time establishments.

4.  Why Israel’s upcoming election may matter to American Jews

You think you’re tired of talking about American politics? How about having to, for the fourth time in two years, dig into the ins and outs of Israeli elections?

By now, everyone knows the drill: The elections are all about Netanyahu.

On the one side, there’s the Bibi camp, made up of his Likud Party, the right-wing settlers and the ultra-Orthodox. They all want everything to remain just as it’s been, and are touting Netanyahu’s role in securing millions of coronavirus vaccines—making Israel the world leader in vaccinations—as a reason to reelect him.

On the other side is the anti-Bibi camp, ranging from Arab parties, moderate leftists, the reinvented Labor, neo-liberals, centrist generals and newly found disillusioned Likudniks. They all share the belief that Netanyahu, facing a trial on three counts of corruption-related charges, can no longer lead the country. Apart from that, they agree on nothing.

There are many details, nuances and scenarios, but they all have little to do with the lives of Jewish Americans.

Except for one. Perhaps.

Last week, Israel’s Supreme Court ruled in favor of granting citizenship to non-Jewish residents who undergo Reform or Conservative conversion to Judaism.

It’s a tiny step in a years-long battle over the recognition of non-Orthodox Jewish denominations in Israel. (Ben Sales, at  JTA , has a great explainer on what the ruling means.)

This brings us back to the upcoming elections.

The fierce reaction from Israel’s Orthodox parties (including, comparing non-Orthodox Jews to  dogs , courtesy of United Torah Judaism, a coalition partner of Netanyahu) and of Netanyahu himself, who called the ruling “very troubling” and of politicians from his party vowing to overturn the ruling, served as an important reminder that American Jews—who are largely Reform and Conservative—have skin in this game.

The March 23 elections will determine Israel’s path forward on many aspects, some of them pivotal to its security and democracy. But they will also signal the direction the nation chooses when it comes to its relationship with the Jewish diaspora, and that’s a good enough reason to keep a close watch.

5. What are Jared and Ivanka up to?

Kushner, according to  reports,  is taking a break and is no longer part of the inner circle advising his father-in-law, former president Donald Trump.

Ivanka Trump, has made clear she  will not seek  Marco Rubio’s Senate seat, but she may be aiming for  higher places. According to another report, Donald Trump is considering his daughter Ivanka as a potential 2024 running mate.

Antisemitism is a warning sign. Are we listening?

By Eileen Filler-Corn • July 3, 2025
In the nearly two years since Hamas’s brutal Oct. 7 attack on Israel, American Jews have watched a disturbing rise in antisemitism take place across America — and crucially, among some of our longtime allies. For decades, Jewish Americans stood at the forefront of progressive causes, marching for civil rights, fighting for reproductive freedom and advocating for immigrants and the marginalized. My Jewish faith is what first drove me to public service. The Jewish concept of tikkun olam — our responsibility to repair the world — is not just a religious tenet but a moral call to action. It’s why we’ve always shown up to defend others. Yet now, as antisemitism surges to record levels, many progressive organizations and leaders who once stood with us have gone quiet; or worse, turned their backs entirely. It’s no longer just about Israeli policy. The line between anti-Zionism and antisemitism has been crossed so many times it’s barely a line at all. “Zionist” has become a stand-in for “Jew,” and the message is clear: Unless you disavow the world’s only Jewish state, your place in many progressive spaces is no longer welcome. The picture is sobering. There have been calls to ban “Zionists” from Pride events. Many women’s groups have shrugged at Hamas’ rape of Israeli women. And the Democratic nominee for mayor of America’s most populous city has a pattern of antisemitic rhetoric and has refused to condemn the hurtful call to “globalize the intifada,” a rallying cry that has been used to incite violence against Jews. This didn’t happen overnight, but the silence from many who claim to fight for justice has been deafening and deeply painful. I know what it feels like to be targeted for who you are. In January 2020, shortly after I became the first woman and the first Jewish Speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates, the FBI uncovered a plot to assassinate me. Two members of a neo-Nazi domestic terrorist group had targeted me. It was the most serious of many threats I received during my time as Speaker. Thankfully, law enforcement intervened in time. But the threat was real, and it reminded me that hatred knows no single party or ideology. We’ve long seen this kind of extremist hate on the right, but today that same danger is rising on both extremes of the ideological spectrum. Antisemitism spreads under different names but with the same devastating consequences. Now, with the recent war between Israel and Iran, we’re likely to see a fresh wave of anti-Zionism and antisemitism. It is already giving rise to a new round of dangerous conspiracy theories laced with antisemitic tropes: accusing American Jews of dual loyalty; suggesting we control foreign policy; and portraying Jewish political engagement as part of a shadowy cabal influencing Washington. This is a moment of moral testing. Will our leaders speak clearly and forcefully against antisemitism, even when it’s politically inconvenient? Will those who champion diversity and inclusion apply those values to Jews as well? And will we be honest about how bad actors have exploited division, stoked extremism and enabled those who traffic in hate? Just as many Americans oppose President Donald Trump’s leadership while still loving this country and believing in its promise, the same is true for Israel. You can criticize or reject Prime Minister Netanyahu’s government and still support Israel’s right to exist, to defend itself and to thrive as a Jewish and democratic state. That distinction matters. Criticizing a government is not the same as condemning a people; but when it comes to Israel, that line is too often deliberately blurred. We must be able to hold leaders accountable without fueling hatred or questioning a nation’s fundamental legitimacy. Antisemitism is not merely a problem faced by Jews — it is a bellwether for the health of our democracy. When a society tolerates hatred against one group, it gives license to hate others. When threats against public servants go unchallenged, violence becomes normalized. I was reminded of that tragic reality when my friend and former counterpart, former Minnesota House Speaker Melissa Hortman, was executed in her home along with her husband, Mark. Authorities say her killer was a politically motivated extremist who had compiled a list of Democratic lawmakers. Melissa was a principled leader and a friend. Her death was a heartbreaking loss and a flashing red warning sign for the tolerance of hate in our democracy. We cannot afford to treat this moment as normal. It is time for our allies to rejoin us. To speak up when we are threatened. To see antisemitism for what it is: a growing, dangerous force that must be confronted head-on. Because if we wait until it affects everyone, it will already be too late. Eileen Filler Corn is a JEI Board Member and Former Speaker of the Virginia House of Delegates, and the only ever Jewish speaker in VA
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Letter to House Judiciary Committee on Anti-Semitism

July 1, 2025
July 1, 2025 U.S. House Committee On The Judiciary 2142 Rayburn House Office Building Washington, DC 20515 Now in our ninth year, the nationally and internationally recognized Jewish Electorate Institute (JEI), an independent, non-partisan, non-profit organization, continues to serve as the barometer for the Jewish electorate. We are therefore honored to submit the following Comments for the Record to the U.S. House of Representatives’ Judiciary Committee in support of its June 24, 2025, hearing on antisemitism - Rising Threat: America’s Battle Against Antisemitic Terror. This hearing, punctuated by the moving testimony of Matt Nosanchuk, reminded us that Jewish safety in America is not a political football - it is a national imperative. Nosanchuk, a former senior official in both the Obama and Biden Administrations and a lifelong advocate against antisemitism, laid bare the stark realities we face. The murder of Sarah Milgrim and Yaron Lischinsky, who were attending a Jewish community event just blocks from his home, brought the crisis home - literally and painfully. It also underscored a chilling truth: this could have been any one of us. Antisemitism today does not discriminate based on geography, profession, or even political identity. Nosanchuk rightly challenged both ends of the political spectrum. From the right, we've seen rising indulgence of white nationalist rhetoric, normalization of Nazi imagery, and an embrace of conspiracy theorists. When antisemitism is tolerated—or worse, weaponized—by public officials and influential institutions, it emboldens violence and undermines the rule of law. The example of the pardoning of the person wearing a “Camp Auschwitz” shirt at the riot on the Capitol on January 6, 2021, was not just shocking to the Jewish community – it was symptomatic of a deeper, corrosive tolerance for hate. From the left, antisemitism also too often masquerades as political critique. When Jews are asked to renounce their ties to Israel to participate in coalitions, or when pro-Palestinian activism turns violent against Jews, with intimidating targeted rhetoric and violence, that’s not solidarity – it’s exclusion and scapegoating. Our Jewish identity should never be a precondition for political participation. What we need is not partisan grandstanding, but comprehensive action. That includes implementing the Biden Administration’s well-thought-out National Strategy to Counter Antisemitism, restoring funding for civil rights enforcement at the Justice Department, and condemning hate, regardless of its ideological source. Nosanchuk’s call for education, prevention, and cross-community solidarity is exactly right. In closing, it’s our view at JEI that using antisemitism as cover for draconian immigration or university policies erodes the democratic institutions that have allowed Jewish life to flourish. Fighting hate must not become an excuse to violate civil liberties - ours or anyone else’s. Our safety as Jews has always been linked to the safety of others. In this perilous moment, we must demand more than soundbites. We must demand seriousness, solidarity, and above all, solutions. We are grateful to the Committee for having held this vital hearing at a perilous moment for American Jews. Sincerely, Barbara Goldberg Goldman Chairperson The Jewish Electorate Institute

JEI Statement on escalation and Support on Israel Security

June 18, 2025
Washington, DC — As hostilities between Israel and Iran intensify, the Jewish Electorate Institute (JEI), a nonpartisan political nonprofit, is calling on Congress to take all necessary measures to support Israel’s security, halt Iran’s nuclear ambitions, and help bring the hostages home.