Haaretz: Can Jewish Grandparents in Florida, Nevada and Arizona Help Flip the Senate?

November 4, 2018

By Allison Kaplan Sommer

The Great Schlep: That’s what comedian Sarah Silverman dubbed her campaign to convince young Jews to head down to the key swing state of Florida in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections to convince their grandparents to vote for  Barack Obama.

“If you knew that visiting your grandparents could change the world, would you do it?” she asked in the campaign video. “Of course you would. You’d have to be a douche nozzle not to.”skip – Sarah Silverman video

Silverman’s unconventional approach proved successful: Obama won Florida both times. In retrospect,  Hillary Clinton  could have benefited from a little schlepping. The state, notorious for its deep political divide with a reputation as the ultimate “purple” state and the site of the infamous Bush-Gore standoff in 2000, turned its back on Hillary and flipped for  Donald Trump  in 2016.

Now, on the eve of the fateful 2018 midterm elections, it isn’t just Floridian-Jewish retirees whose votes could play an important role in the battle for the U.S. Senate.

Two other Sun Belt states, Arizona and Nevada – whose Jewish populations have grown significantly over the past decade as they have become popular retirement destinations – are also in play. Each has a race close enough that even the relatively small Jewish vote can make a difference.

This influence is magnified by the fact that older Jews are among the groups most likely to turn out at the polls, and the community is likely to be even more motivated after last Saturday’s devastating attack on Jewish worshippers by a white supremacist in Pittsburgh.

All three states have Senate races that are considered too close to call – and all are vital for the Democratic Party if it is to hold out any hope of taking both houses of Congress. While the  FiveThirtyEight website  estimates that the party has an 84 percent chance of taking the House, it offers it only a 15 percent shot of claiming the Senate.

Throughout the campaign, the three contests have seen Republicans and Democrats polling within four points of each other – often separated by only one point or even in a dead heat.  A survey taken in October  – before events in Pittsburgh – by the Jewish Electorate Institute found that 74 percent of American Jews plan to vote for Democrats and only 26 percent intended to vote for the GOP.skip – Is the United States still safe for Jews – and what should Israel do about it?

In a contest viewed widely as a referendum on Trump, the survey found that only 23 percent of Jewish voters polled viewed the president favorably – a full 20 points below national figures.

In Florida, the original “schlep” state, an estimated 650,000 Jews are eligible to vote in the tight race between incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson and the state’s popular governor Rick Scott, who wants to move from the State House to Washington.

Florida boasts the third-largest Jewish community in the United States: It has been estimated that Jewish voters comprise between 4 to 6 percent of total voters, a number large enough to have made it a traditionally important voting bloc in the Sunshine State.

In  the neck-and-neck contest  between Nelson and Scott, it could be enough to make the difference.

As a result, Israel has become a point of discussion in the campaign. However, it hasn’t been raised as often as it has in the state’s other big statistically tied race: The  gubernatorial contest between Rep. Ron DeSantis and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum.

Still, in an attempt to entice the traditionally Democratic Jewish vote away from Nelson, Scott has hammered the incumbent senator for voting in favor of the  Iran nuclear deal in 2015.

The ‘anti-Israel’ card

While the Democrats’ goal in Florida is to keep an incumbent in place, in Arizona and Nevada the effort is to replace a GOP senator. Arizona’s 106,000 Jews are a smaller statistical slice of the population, comprising an estimated 2 percent of voters. Even so, the margin separating Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema from the GOP’s Rep. Martha McSally  is narrow enough  for every vote to count. With the race so tight, the community can have a decisive impact – particularly if Jews turn out in high numbers.

In the hard-fought campaign , Sinema has focused on health care while McSally has done her best to remind voters of Sinema’s past. She has frequently portrayed her as a radical left-wing extremist, citing past activism against U.S. involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan (even going so far as to call her a traitor).

This includes Sinema’s attitude toward Israel before 2012, the year she entered Congress. The Republicans say she was far more critical of Israel in those days, belonging to groups that took positions the GOP has called “anti-Israel.” McSally contrasts this with her own record as a colonel in the U.S. Air Force.

Nevada, meanwhile, is home to one of the closest, most contentious and well-funded Senate races: Between incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller and Democratic challenger Rep. Jacky Rosen. Again, the Jewish population in the state is relatively small – between 1 and 2 percent. But Hillary Clinton won the state in the 2016 presidential election with a margin of just 1.6 percent, and polls show the candidates essentially in a tie.

Rosen has extra appeal to older Jewish voters in the state: The first-term congresswoman is not only Jewish herself, but emerged as a public figure serving as president of the state’s largest synagogue. She has worked to appeal to pro-Israel voters in her state, saying she, unlike most Democrats, would have opposed Obama’s 2015 Iran nuclear pact.

Her opponent, Heller, enjoys the support of the state’s most powerful Jewish resident – casino billionaire and Republican megadonor  Sheldon Adelson , who, together with his wife Miriam, also owns the state’s largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

So if the folks in Florida, Nevada, and Arizona who enjoy early-bird specials for dinner are diligent about their early voting, it could give the three Democratic Senate contenders an important edge they need for victory – whether or not their grandchildren decide to make the schlep.

Winning all three of these “Bubbe & Zayde” states may not guarantee Democrats the Senate – since the party is struggling in traditionally red states like North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas, it is an uphill climb. But it will allow it to remain a possibility.

Pulse of The Jewish Voter Amidst Iran War Shows Engagement In A Host of Issues

April 15, 2026
U.S. JEWS VOTING DEM IN CONGRESS MIDTERMS YET QUESTION WHAT PARTY STANDS FOR, ESP. ON ISRAEL JEWISH R ’ s MOST ID ’ d AS PRO-ISRAEL, NEW POLL SHOWS United in Support of Israel ’ s Right to Exist as Jewish Homeland But Mixed Concepts of Zionism Jews see too much Israel criticism playing into antisemitism While most Jews feel too many Israel supporters use antisemitism claims to avoid legitimate policy debate WASHINGTON – The latest Jewish Electorate Institute (JEI) poll shows American Jews are voting heavily Democratic in the midterm election for Congress. At the same time, Jews have questions about what the Democratic Party stands for, particularly on Israel. Jewish Republicans, on the other hand, are most identified as being pro-Israel, which is also one of their biggest image advantages over Democrats. Meanwhile, amid debates in the Jewish community over Israel, war in Iran and election politics, American Jews are united in support of Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state and homeland for the Jewish people. However, there are mixed signals over the concept of Zionism, with the majority seeing Zionism favorably, but only a third calling themselves Zionists. There is also concern about how antisemitism is becoming a part of the increasingly heated discussions over U.S.-Israel issues, by both sides. A large majority of U.S. Jews see too many critics of Israel using language about Jews that play into antisemitism, whether intended or not. At the same time, a majority of Jews feel too many supporters of Israel use claims of antisemitism to avoid legitimate debate over policy. These analyses are based on the final release of the findings of a national survey of 800 Jewish registered voters, with an oversample to yield 600 Jewish women. The survey was conducted for JEI by The Mellman Group using a high-quality online national panel from March 13-23, 2026. The margin of error for the sample as a whole is +/- 3.5% at the 95% level of confidence (higher for subgroups). Previous JEI analyses and releases centered on U.S. Jews’ pro-Israel identity and their criticism of the government, support for pro-Israel spending in the primaries and the popularity of AIPAC, DMFI and J Street. Also, on what American Jews would likely discuss at the Passover seder tables.

JEI's Spring 2026 Latest Poll

April 15, 2026
Jewish Voters Highly Engaged, Prioritize Domestic Issues; Strong Support for Israel and Caution on Military Action and Advocacy This recent March 2026 national survey finds that American Jewish adults overwhelmingly affirm Israel’s right to exist while also expressing caution about the current U.S. military escalation in Iran. Views on pro-Israel political spending, however, remain mixed. AIPAC has an overall favorable impression of 39%, DMFI 32%, and J Street 18%. Some key findings also include the following: Turnout and partisanship: Registered respondents report their very high intention to turn out for the November 2026 midterm elections. About seven in ten identify as Democrats (many strongly), roughly one in four compared to Republicans, with the remainder being made up of Independents. Democrats hold a substantial advantage in hypothetical congressional votes in respondents’ districts. Donald Trump receives broad net disapproval, and Benjamin Netanyahu is viewed unfavorably by more respondents than favorably. Israel and Zionism: There are mixed signals over the concept of Zionism, with the majority seeing Zionism favorably, but only a third calling themselves Zionists. Roughly seven in ten hold a favorable view of Israel; 87% endorse Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish homeland. Most see Zionism as Jewish self‑determination, though only a third self‑identify as Zionist. A surprisingly large number are unsure about the definition of Zionism. Foreign policy and military action: A majority of respondents oppose current U.S. military action against Iran and say the president should have sought congressional approval for strikes. Many prioritize preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons but favor clear objectives and oversight over unilateral escalation. 2026 Midterm Elections & Party Affiliations: American Jews are voting heavily Democratic in the midterm election for Congress. At the same time, Jews have questions about what the Democratic Party stands for, particularly on Israel. Jewish Republicans are most identified as pro-Israel, which is one of their biggest image advantages over Democrats. Pro‑Israel advocacy and spending: Opinions are split on outside groups spending in primaries—about a third support such spending, a third oppose it, and many are undecided. Respondents are nearly evenly divided on whether aggressive outside intervention helps or harms U.S.–Israel relations. Antisemitism and public debate: A large majority say some criticism of Israel slips into antisemitic tropes, and a significant share also believes some defenders wrongly label policy criticism as antisemitism. There is also concern about how antisemitism is becoming a part of the increasingly heated discussions over U.S.-Israel issues, by both sides. A large majority of U.S. Jews see too many critics of Israel using language about Jews that plays into antisemitism, whether intended or not. At the same time, a majority of Jews feel too many supporters of Israel use claims of antisemitism to avoid legitimate debate over policy. Domestic Issues are Important: Democrats are viewed positively on healthcare, abortion rights, fair elections, and middle class advocacy, while Republicans are viewed as pro-Israel but excessively conservative and unwilling to oppose the President. The sample of respondents: The current distribution of Jewish voters by party affiliation: 69% Democratic, 24% Republican, and 7% Independent. Poll respondents are mixed gender, highly educated, and religiously plural within Judaism (Reform and unaffiliated are the largest). About one‑third belong to a synagogue, but religious practice varies. Jewish women Voters: There are more female Democrats likely to hold reinforcing views, contributing to the party's electoral advantage, thereby fueling the midterm margin. The partisan divide is even larger among women. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of Jewish women identify as Democrats, including 50% who are strong Democrats, and 24% who identify as Democratic Socialists. Likely Jewish women voters are supporting the Democrats in the generic vote: 78% Democratic, 19% Republican, and only 3% undecided. The Democratic vote margin increases significantly with age among Jewish women. Women ages 18-29 vote +46 Democratic, rising to +60 among those 40–59 and +58 among those 60 and older. These margins exceed those of the overall Jewish electorate, where voters ages 40–59 and 60+ both register a +48 Democratic advantage. The strength of Jewish identity also follows a consistent pattern. Among women who place lower importance on being Jewish, the Democratic advantage is +74, compared to +61 among the overall electorate. Among those who place higher importance on being Jewish, Jewish women still lean more Democratic than the overall electorate, at +41 versus +36. Jewish women are also more likely to disapprove of Trump’s job performance and the current U.S. military action against Iran. They are four points more likely than the overall electorate to disapprove of Trump’s job performance (77% vs. 73%) and the U.S. military action in Iran (59% vs. 55%). Jewish voters combine strong civic engagement and a clear Democratic preference with nuanced views that favor protecting Israel while insisting on democratic oversight, strategic clarity, and careful political tactics. Well-positioned issues that resonate for candidates and organizations in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections include emphasizing support for Israel alongside respect for congressional authority, clear policy goals, and sensitive messaging on antisemitism. "This poll reinforces a simple truth that the Jewish community is not monolithic, and the Jewish vote should not be taken for granted. Their concerns extend beyond Israel and Iran. It also indicates a critical need for education about Israel's history and the meaning of Zionism. These needs have never been more urgent than they are today," said Barbara Goldberg Goldman, JEI Chair. These analyses are based on the final release of the findings of a national survey of 800 Jewish registered voters, with an oversample to yield 600 Jewish women. The survey was conducted for JEI by The Mellman Group using a high-quality online national panel from March 13-23, 2026. The margin of error for the sample as a whole is +/- 3.5% at the 95% level of confidence (higher for subgroups).

JTA: Most American Jews oppose AIPAC spending in Democratic primaries, survey finds

April 14, 2026
The survey was released one week after another conducted by the Mellman Group and commissioned by the Jewish Electorate Institute found that a majority of American Jews have “not heard much” about the role that pro-Israel lobbying groups have played in this year’s early midterm primaries.  The poll, which surveyed 800 registered Jewish voters March 13-23, found that just 11% of American Jews had heard a “great deal” about “the role pro-Israel groups have played in the early 2026 primaries,” while 27% said they’d heard “some” about it. Meanwhile, 62% said they’d either heard “not much,” “none at all” or that they don’t know.