Haaretz: Can Jewish Grandparents in Florida, Nevada and Arizona Help Flip the Senate?

November 4, 2018

By Allison Kaplan Sommer

The Great Schlep: That’s what comedian Sarah Silverman dubbed her campaign to convince young Jews to head down to the key swing state of Florida in the 2008 and 2012 presidential elections to convince their grandparents to vote for  Barack Obama.

“If you knew that visiting your grandparents could change the world, would you do it?” she asked in the campaign video. “Of course you would. You’d have to be a douche nozzle not to.”skip – Sarah Silverman video

Silverman’s unconventional approach proved successful: Obama won Florida both times. In retrospect,  Hillary Clinton  could have benefited from a little schlepping. The state, notorious for its deep political divide with a reputation as the ultimate “purple” state and the site of the infamous Bush-Gore standoff in 2000, turned its back on Hillary and flipped for  Donald Trump  in 2016.

Now, on the eve of the fateful 2018 midterm elections, it isn’t just Floridian-Jewish retirees whose votes could play an important role in the battle for the U.S. Senate.

Two other Sun Belt states, Arizona and Nevada – whose Jewish populations have grown significantly over the past decade as they have become popular retirement destinations – are also in play. Each has a race close enough that even the relatively small Jewish vote can make a difference.

This influence is magnified by the fact that older Jews are among the groups most likely to turn out at the polls, and the community is likely to be even more motivated after last Saturday’s devastating attack on Jewish worshippers by a white supremacist in Pittsburgh.

All three states have Senate races that are considered too close to call – and all are vital for the Democratic Party if it is to hold out any hope of taking both houses of Congress. While the  FiveThirtyEight website  estimates that the party has an 84 percent chance of taking the House, it offers it only a 15 percent shot of claiming the Senate.

Throughout the campaign, the three contests have seen Republicans and Democrats polling within four points of each other – often separated by only one point or even in a dead heat.  A survey taken in October  – before events in Pittsburgh – by the Jewish Electorate Institute found that 74 percent of American Jews plan to vote for Democrats and only 26 percent intended to vote for the GOP.skip – Is the United States still safe for Jews – and what should Israel do about it?

In a contest viewed widely as a referendum on Trump, the survey found that only 23 percent of Jewish voters polled viewed the president favorably – a full 20 points below national figures.

In Florida, the original “schlep” state, an estimated 650,000 Jews are eligible to vote in the tight race between incumbent Democratic Senator Bill Nelson and the state’s popular governor Rick Scott, who wants to move from the State House to Washington.

Florida boasts the third-largest Jewish community in the United States: It has been estimated that Jewish voters comprise between 4 to 6 percent of total voters, a number large enough to have made it a traditionally important voting bloc in the Sunshine State.

In  the neck-and-neck contest  between Nelson and Scott, it could be enough to make the difference.

As a result, Israel has become a point of discussion in the campaign. However, it hasn’t been raised as often as it has in the state’s other big statistically tied race: The  gubernatorial contest between Rep. Ron DeSantis and Tallahassee Mayor Andrew Gillum.

Still, in an attempt to entice the traditionally Democratic Jewish vote away from Nelson, Scott has hammered the incumbent senator for voting in favor of the  Iran nuclear deal in 2015.

The ‘anti-Israel’ card

While the Democrats’ goal in Florida is to keep an incumbent in place, in Arizona and Nevada the effort is to replace a GOP senator. Arizona’s 106,000 Jews are a smaller statistical slice of the population, comprising an estimated 2 percent of voters. Even so, the margin separating Democratic Rep. Kyrsten Sinema from the GOP’s Rep. Martha McSally  is narrow enough  for every vote to count. With the race so tight, the community can have a decisive impact – particularly if Jews turn out in high numbers.

In the hard-fought campaign, Sinema has focused on health care while McSally has done her best to remind voters of Sinema’s past. She has frequently portrayed her as a radical left-wing extremist, citing past activism against U.S. involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan (even going so far as to call her a traitor).

This includes Sinema’s attitude toward Israel before 2012, the year she entered Congress. The Republicans say she was far more critical of Israel in those days, belonging to groups that took positions the GOP has called “anti-Israel.” McSally contrasts this with her own record as a colonel in the U.S. Air Force.

Nevada, meanwhile, is home to one of the closest, most contentious and well-funded Senate races: Between incumbent Republican Sen. Dean Heller and Democratic challenger Rep. Jacky Rosen. Again, the Jewish population in the state is relatively small – between 1 and 2 percent. But Hillary Clinton won the state in the 2016 presidential election with a margin of just 1.6 percent, and polls show the candidates essentially in a tie.

Rosen has extra appeal to older Jewish voters in the state: The first-term congresswoman is not only Jewish herself, but emerged as a public figure serving as president of the state’s largest synagogue. She has worked to appeal to pro-Israel voters in her state, saying she, unlike most Democrats, would have opposed Obama’s 2015 Iran nuclear pact.

Her opponent, Heller, enjoys the support of the state’s most powerful Jewish resident – casino billionaire and Republican megadonor  Sheldon Adelson, who, together with his wife Miriam, also owns the state’s largest newspaper, the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

So if the folks in Florida, Nevada, and Arizona who enjoy early-bird specials for dinner are diligent about their early voting, it could give the three Democratic Senate contenders an important edge they need for victory – whether or not their grandchildren decide to make the schlep.

Winning all three of these “Bubbe & Zayde” states may not guarantee Democrats the Senate – since the party is struggling in traditionally red states like North Dakota, Tennessee and Texas, it is an uphill climb. But it will allow it to remain a possibility.

Newsweek: Political Smoke Alarm... Jewish Voter Identification Becoming More Complicated

October 1, 2026
The latest Jewish Electorate Institute survey gives Democrats a commanding 71 percent to 23 percent advantage among Jewish voters on the generic congressional ballot, virtually unchanged from its March poll. Sixty-nine percent identify as Democrats, while 24 percent identify as Republicans.  The same poll contains a less comfortable set of numbers, though: 57 percent of Jewish voters overall say antisemitism is increasing within the Democratic Party, while 35 percent of Jewish Democrats say the rise of anti-Israel Democratic candidates has made it harder for them personally to identify as Democrats. The votes may still be staying Democratic, but for some Jewish voters, identification with the party is becoming more complicated.

NEW POLL: What’s on the minds of Jewish Americans today?

September 25, 2026
Our latest JEI poll shows American Jews are still overwhelmingly pro-Israel but also very critical of Israel and Prime Minister Netanyahu. A majority are concerned that Netanyahu’s actions have increased antisemitic and anti-Israel sentiment. While this is more prevalent among Democrats, even a third of GOP Jews are greatly concerned. This poll also shows the divisions on some recent hot button issues. For instance, most Democrats support cutting aid to Israel, while majorities of independents and Republicans are opposed. There is also a division on the recent pro-Israel action in primary elections – with over a third of Jews feeling it has made things worse, while an increasing plurality feel it is more important than ever. Jews Are Pro-Israel But Very Critical Of Netanyahu, Though Not Focused On The Upcoming Israeli Election An overwhelming 86% of American Jews identify themselves as Pro-Israel, including 65% saying they are pro-Israel but critical of some or many of Israeli government policies. This is barely changed from the March JEI poll which showed 86% pro-Israel and 63% critical. Nearly three quarters (71%) see Israel favorably compared to 25% unfavorably – barely changed from March (71%/24%). At the same time, 61% have an unfavorable view of Netanyahu, with 34% favorable. This is within a point of Netanyahu’s standing from the JEI post-election poll in November 2024 which showed 33% favorable, 61% unfavorable. While 80% of American Jews are following the November elections in the U.S., only 38% are following the October elections in Israel. They do, however, have a strong preference in the outcome with 60% wanting Netanyahu replaced, including 53% feeling strongly. Only 16% of American Jews want to see him reelected. A Majority Are Concerned Netanyahu Has Increased Anti-Semitic And Anti-Israel Feelings Nearly half of American Jews are concerned about antisemitic rhetoric in the Republican (48% a great deal of concern) and Democratic (44%) Parties. Even among partisans roughly three in ten are greatly concerned about antisemitic rhetoric within their own party, with 29% of Republicans saying that about the GOP and 34% of Democrats saying it about their party. A 56% majority of Jews have a great deal of concern that “Israel’s actions under Netanyahu have increased antisemitism and anti-Israel sentiment in the U.S.” Two thirds (65%) of Democratic Jews feel this way, and nearly half (46%) of independents and a third (34%) of Republicans. Most Democrats Would Cut Aid To Israel, But Republicans & Independents Are Opposed A 52% majority of Jews support cutting or eliminating aid to Israel, with 17% supporting “eliminating all $3.3 billion in military aid that the U.S. provides Israel” and 36% preferring to cut but not eliminate aid. Four in ten (40%) would keep aid at current levels, with 8% not sure. There are stark differences on partisanship, with nearly two thirds of Democrats (63%) wanting to cut or eliminate aid, and a similar two thirds of Republicans (67%) and independents (65%) for keeping current levels. Four in ten (40%) Jews are concerned about Congressional support for eliminating aid for “defensive weapons like Iron Dome” (40%), only slightly higher than concern for eliminating “offensive weapons” (36%). A majority of Republicans are concerned about cuts to either offensive (54%) or defensive weapon (56%), while less than half of independents are concerned (44% defensive, 45% offensive) and only a third of Democrats (34% defensive, 29% offensive.) Still there is more of a cost for a Member of Congress voting to cut aid, than a benefit. Nearly half (47%) are less likely to support a Member voting to cut aid, including 36% of those who support cutting aid themselves. Only one in five (21%) are more likely to vote for a Member cutting aid. Even among those who support cuts, only 13% are more likely to support a Member voting that way. Views On AIPAC And The Recent Primary Battles Are Mixed, Even Among Democrats A majority (51%) of American Jews have heard at least something about pro-Israel activity in this year’s primary elections – up from 38% in March. However, higher awareness has not dramatically changed opinions. A narrow 39% plurality support the pro-Israel activity in the primaries, 35% oppose it, and 26% are unsure; very similar to March (37% support, 32% oppose, 31% not sure). Given a choice between two statements, 45% believe “With increasing anti-Israel sentiment and threats to Israel, it is more important than ever for pro-Israel groups to play an active role against candidates who are not supportive enough of a strong US-Israel relationship”, while 37% believe that “These heavy-handed efforts by pro-Israel groups in primary elections make things worse by turning voters against a strong US-Israel relationship, and they should stop.” Large majorities of Republicans and independents believe it more important than ever for pro-Israel groups to get involved in the primaries. But while Democrats lean the other way, they are more torn – with 46% saying the pro-Israel activity is making things worse, but the majority of Democrats either think it’s more important than ever (34%) or are not sure (20%). Indeed, views of AIPAC, the biggest pro-Israel spender in primaries, are mixed, with 42% favorable, 35% unfavorable, and 24% not sure. AIPAC is seen favorably by most independents (55% favorable, 15% unfavorable) and Republicans (71% favorable, 12% unfavorable). Jewish Democrats are 44% unfavorable, with a majority either favorable (31%) or not sure (25%). Moreover, Democratic Jews do not fit easily into one box on AIPAC. Nearly half (45%) agree with the statement “AIPAC is being unfairly singled out for doing just what other advocacy groups do”. Yet 30% agree they cannot vote for a candidate who accepts money from AIPAC, while 19% cannot support a candidate who refuses money from AIPAC. While American Jews are generally together on being pro-Israel even if critical of the government, there are divisions on what should be done in the U.S. on aid and elections.

JEI Advocates for Right to Worship

September 25, 2026
September 23, 2026 The Honorable Mike Johnson Speaker of the United States House of Representatives United States House of Representatives Washington, DC 20515 Dear Mr. Speaker: I submit this statement for the record in support of H.R. 10052 and S. 5289, the Right to Worship Act. I am grateful to Representatives Brad Knott, Tom Suozzi, Michael Lawler, and Josh Gottheimer and Senators Ted Cruz and Elissa Slotkin for their bipartisan leadership in introducing this important legislation to protect the fundamental right of Americans to worship without fear, intimidation, or deliberate disruption. For Jewish Americans, this protection is particularly urgent. Synagogues should be places where Jewish families can gather in prayer, celebrate Shabbat and holidays, educate their children, and sustain their communities. No one should have to approach a synagogue wondering whether protesters will block the entrance, intimidate worshippers, prevent families from entering, or deliberately disrupt religious services. The Right to Worship Act recognizes a basic principle of religious liberty: Americans must be able to enter their houses of worship and participate in religious services without being subjected to conduct that meaningfully interferes with their ability to worship. The legislation establishes a narrowly tailored 100-foot protection zone around entrances to houses of worship during scheduled religious services and prohibits knowing conduct that disrupts services or hinders, deters, threatens, or intimidates people seeking to attend. This protection is not about preventing peaceful expression or legitimate public debate. The legislation specifically distinguishes protected expression from conduct that interferes with the ability of people to worship. That distinction is essential. Americans have a constitutional right to express their views, including views with which others strongly disagree. But that right should not be used as a justification for preventing another person from exercising the equally fundamental right to freely practice their religion. The need for this protection is especially clear for Jewish communities. In recent years, Jewish Americans have faced protests, intimidation, threats, and security concerns at and around synagogues and other Jewish institutions. Jewish families should not have to choose between exercising their faith and avoiding confrontation at the doors of their houses of worship. The right to worship is a foundational American freedom. It belongs to Jews, Christians, Muslims, Sikhs, Hindus, and Americans of every faith. Protecting houses of worship therefore is not a special accommodation for any one religious community. It is a protection of religious liberty itself. We also recognize the importance of maintaining the careful balance between religious freedom and the First Amendment's protection of speech and peaceful assembly. The Right to Worship Act addresses that balance by focusing on conduct that actually disrupts religious services or prevents or intimidates individuals from attending them, rather than on the viewpoint or content of someone's speech. We support continued careful consideration of the legislation to ensure that its protections remain clear, appropriately tailored, and consistent with constitutional rights. For Jewish Americans, the ability to walk through the doors of a synagogue and worship openly is not an abstract principle. It is an essential part of Jewish communal life and religious freedom. A Jewish family should be able to attend services on Shabbat or a holiday without being blocked, threatened, intimidated, or made to feel that entering their synagogue is itself an act of confrontation. Religious freedom cannot exist if people are technically free to worship but are effectively prevented from doing so by intimidation or deliberate disruption at the doors of their houses of worship. We strongly support the goals of the Right to Worship Act and urge Congress to advance this bipartisan legislation. Protecting the right of Americans to gather, pray, and practice their faith is a constitutional responsibility and a fundamental American value. The freedom to worship belongs to all of us. Congress should ensure that every American can exercise that freedom without fear. Sincerely,