New York Jewish Week: Jewish Vote ‘Could Be Pivotal’ In Closely Watched Florida Races

November 1, 2018

By Stewart Ain

The belief by many Jews that President Donald Trump was insensitive in his response to the mass murders in a Pittsburgh synagogue last Shabbat may help galvanize Jewish voters in Florida to get out the vote for Democrats in Tuesday’s midterm elections.

That’s the belief of Halie Soifer, executive director of the Jewish Democratic Council of America, who told The Jewish Week that a poll of Jewish Democrats in early October found that 70 percent disapprove of Trump’s handling of anti-Semitism, a figure that she believes has likely increased after the synagogue murders.

“All signs indicate that that number is even higher in the aftermath of this event and a widespread recognition in the Jewish community that Donald Trump’s dangerous rhetoric — which has emboldened neo-Nazis, white supremacists and anti-Semites — has contributed to this problem,” she said.

But Ronald Krongold, a board member of the Republican Jewish Coalition, said he does not believe Trump — whose first comment to reporters after the shooting was that had the synagogue had an armed guard the “results would have been far better” — was insensitive.

“He has a Jewish son-in-law and daughter and Jewish grandchildren,” he said. “He certainly was sensitive to what happened in Pittsburgh. We should be concentrating on the anti-Semitic act. This is only one of a number of anti-Semitic acts that have occurred going back years. … Jews should be talking about anti-Semitism and not trying to win an election by beating up on President Trump.”

Ron Klein, chairman of the JDCA, said Trump has made himself an issue in the midterms because he has told Republican rallies, “I’m not on the ticket, but I am on the ticket because this is also a referendum on me.”

“In a close election like this, anything could happen,” Klein said. “We’re talking of a relatively small number of undecideds. … It could be a Jewish vote that is mad about Pittsburgh and the pipe bombs that were sent from here in Florida to [Jewish billionaire George] Soros and others. There is definitely a lot of anxiety in the Jewish community and whether that motivates them to come out and vote, we will see. We think it will.”

Polls for statewide races for governor and the U.S. Senate are so close that they are considered toss-ups by Real Clear Politics. With one week before Election Day, Democrat Andrew Gillum had a three-point lead over Republican Ron DeSantis in the gubernatorial race, and Democrat Bill Nelson was ahead of Rick Scott by just two points.

“Florida is so closely divided that a ‘blue wave’ by the Democrats would mean a win by only two or three points,” said Joshua Scacco, assistant professor in the communications department at the University of Florida.

“We have two known quantities in Scott [the current governor] and Nelson [the incumbent senator] and the polls have them deadlocked,” Scacco said. “For many we are no longer in the persuasion but mobilization part of the campaign. Republicans and Democrats are pretty evenly split in the state and [one week before Election Day] more Republicans than Democrats have voted. Early voting started here last week and so far more than three million votes have been cast, with 60,000 more Republicans voting than Democrats.”

Because both elections are so close, the Jewish vote “could be pivotal,” according to Kevin Wagner, a professor and chairman of the Political Science Department at Florida Atlantic University.

“That’s the reason both Gillum and DeSantis are aggressively supporting Israel and the reason DeSantis went to Israel for the opening of the American Embassy in Jerusalem,” Wagner said.

Gillum, the current mayor of Tallahassee, is being labeled by DeSantis as a “radical” who has “anti-Semites around him” due to his association with the Miami-based social justice organization the Dream Defenders.  One TV ad by the Republican Governors Association claims the Dream Defenders supports open borders and that its website calls police racists who have no place in society. And DeSantis has said the group compared Israel’s treatment of Palestinians to an “apartheid system.”

But Gillum has a whole section on his website devoted to his ties to Israel through an 11-year sister city partnership between Tallahassee and the Israeli city of Ramat HaSharon, and he has made several trips to Israel over the years.

“I don’t think there would be a candidate in Florida who would run on a statewide platform who would be anti-Israel,” said Wagner.

The gubernatorial election got off to a rocky start when DeSantis, in a Fox News interview immediately after his primary win, suggested that voters should not “monkey this up” by electing Gillum, who would be the state’s first black governor.  He said later that his remark had “zero to do with race.” And Florida voters have twice been hit with racist robocalls from an Idaho-based white supremacist group.

“It’s difficult to know how widespread” the calls are, said Oren Segal, director of the Anti-Defamation League’s Center on Extremism. “We heard from a Jewish institution that it received a call, but is unclear how many people have received them. It is not a very expensive tactic to employ. … It’s possible some people realize it is not legitimate, but others might not. But the impact of picking up a phone and hearing somebody in a minstrel voice making racist and anti-Semitic comments is still a concern for those who receive it.”

Those receiving the call hear jungle sounds and chimpanzee noises in the background as a man says: “Well, hello there! I is the Negro, Andrew Gillum, and I be askin’ you to make me governor of this here state of Florida.” At one point, the speaker claims “it was the Jews who owned the slave trade” and that Jews will be “puttin’ Negroes in charge over the white folks.”

The call concludes: “All the Jews gon’ vote me, Andrew Gillum, governor of this here state of Florida.”

DeSantis denounced the calls, saying through a spokesman: “This is absolutely appalling and disgusting — and hopefully whoever is behind this has to answer for this despicable action.” 

Segal said this is “just one of many tactics in which technology is used to spread and promote hatred at a time where there is divisive political discourse and hate is in the news every day. This underscores this moment in which we are living.”

He added that similar racist calls have been used in other parts of the country to support candidates who hold anti-Semitic views.

“The goals of the calls are to create fear and anxiety in those communities by leveraging political campaigns or news events to spread anti-Semitism, racism and bigotry,” Segal added.

Susan MacManus, professor emeritus in the Department of Government and International Affairs at the University of South Florida, said she received one of the robocalls and quickly hung up “thinking it was a joke. I think every media got one [of the calls].”

Soifer said the JDCA has endorsed 58 senatorial and congressional candidates in the midterm election but that it is “investing more heavily in Florida than anywhere else in the country. We are buying digital and print ads. We know that people under the age of 65 spend two hours a day on their phones on average, so we are contacting people where they get their information. And we have coupled that with print ads in Jewish newspapers, including election supplements.”

She noted that a national poll of 800 Jewish voters taken earlier this month by the JDCA’s Jewish Electorate Institute found that 74 percent of them were supporting Democratic candidates and that 68 percent of those identify as Democrats. That means that the other 6 percent, Soifer said, are either Republicans or independents “because of the overwhelming rejection of Trump’s policies in the Jewish community.”

MacManus agreed that the “Jewish vote in Florida is still solidly Democratic. There have been some inroads, but Gillum will get the Jewish vote. The Jewish mayor of Miami Beach is totally in support of Gillum, and several rabbis have come out for him. … The older you are, the more you vote a straight ticket.”

One issue DeSantis has raised is “how Gillum is going to pay for all the things he wants to do, like Medicare for all, a $15 minimum wage, and a $50,000 minimum salary for teachers,” MacManus said.

But Barney Loiter, 77, of Boca Raton, said he is voting for Gillum because “I like the way he communicates and his focus on the issues. He is also attacking the Republican rationale for how they do things.”
Asked about Israel, Loiter said he is concerned that “as more progressives get into the mainstream of the Democratic Party it will become an issue – but I have not been able to grapple with that yet. … The Republicans do better on Israel, but it is not a litmus test for me. A lot of my support for the Democratic Party is party-oriented as opposed to specifics about the individuals.”

Audrey Atlas, 84, of Boca Raton, said she will be voting a straight Republican ticket.

“The economy is wonderful, the unemployment rate is fabulous, the administration has eased restrictions on businesses and has created an atmosphere of confidence going forward,” she said. “I have not seen anything like this in this country in many, many years.”

Similarly, Lee Fogel, 90, also of Boca Raton, said he plans to vote for DeSantis because “he seems straight forward as opposed to the mayor of a town that is plagued by crime. They had more killings there [Tallahassee] than ever, and if he [Gillum] can’t control his city, how is he going to control the state?”

Pulse of The Jewish Voter Amidst Iran War Shows Engagement In A Host of Issues

April 15, 2026
U.S. JEWS VOTING DEM IN CONGRESS MIDTERMS YET QUESTION WHAT PARTY STANDS FOR, ESP. ON ISRAEL JEWISH R ’ s MOST ID ’ d AS PRO-ISRAEL, NEW POLL SHOWS United in Support of Israel ’ s Right to Exist as Jewish Homeland But Mixed Concepts of Zionism Jews see too much Israel criticism playing into antisemitism While most Jews feel too many Israel supporters use antisemitism claims to avoid legitimate policy debate WASHINGTON – The latest Jewish Electorate Institute (JEI) poll shows American Jews are voting heavily Democratic in the midterm election for Congress. At the same time, Jews have questions about what the Democratic Party stands for, particularly on Israel. Jewish Republicans, on the other hand, are most identified as being pro-Israel, which is also one of their biggest image advantages over Democrats. Meanwhile, amid debates in the Jewish community over Israel, war in Iran and election politics, American Jews are united in support of Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish state and homeland for the Jewish people. However, there are mixed signals over the concept of Zionism, with the majority seeing Zionism favorably, but only a third calling themselves Zionists. There is also concern about how antisemitism is becoming a part of the increasingly heated discussions over U.S.-Israel issues, by both sides. A large majority of U.S. Jews see too many critics of Israel using language about Jews that play into antisemitism, whether intended or not. At the same time, a majority of Jews feel too many supporters of Israel use claims of antisemitism to avoid legitimate debate over policy. These analyses are based on the final release of the findings of a national survey of 800 Jewish registered voters, with an oversample to yield 600 Jewish women. The survey was conducted for JEI by The Mellman Group using a high-quality online national panel from March 13-23, 2026. The margin of error for the sample as a whole is +/- 3.5% at the 95% level of confidence (higher for subgroups). Previous JEI analyses and releases centered on U.S. Jews’ pro-Israel identity and their criticism of the government, support for pro-Israel spending in the primaries and the popularity of AIPAC, DMFI and J Street. Also, on what American Jews would likely discuss at the Passover seder tables.

JEI's Spring 2026 Latest Poll

April 15, 2026
Jewish Voters Highly Engaged, Prioritize Domestic Issues; Strong Support for Israel and Caution on Military Action and Advocacy This recent March 2026 national survey finds that American Jewish adults overwhelmingly affirm Israel’s right to exist while also expressing caution about the current U.S. military escalation in Iran. Views on pro-Israel political spending, however, remain mixed. AIPAC has an overall favorable impression of 39%, DMFI 32%, and J Street 18%. Some key findings also include the following: Turnout and partisanship: Registered respondents report their very high intention to turn out for the November 2026 midterm elections. About seven in ten identify as Democrats (many strongly), roughly one in four compared to Republicans, with the remainder being made up of Independents. Democrats hold a substantial advantage in hypothetical congressional votes in respondents’ districts. Donald Trump receives broad net disapproval, and Benjamin Netanyahu is viewed unfavorably by more respondents than favorably. Israel and Zionism: There are mixed signals over the concept of Zionism, with the majority seeing Zionism favorably, but only a third calling themselves Zionists. Roughly seven in ten hold a favorable view of Israel; 87% endorse Israel’s right to exist as a Jewish homeland. Most see Zionism as Jewish self‑determination, though only a third self‑identify as Zionist. A surprisingly large number are unsure about the definition of Zionism. Foreign policy and military action: A majority of respondents oppose current U.S. military action against Iran and say the president should have sought congressional approval for strikes. Many prioritize preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons but favor clear objectives and oversight over unilateral escalation. 2026 Midterm Elections & Party Affiliations: American Jews are voting heavily Democratic in the midterm election for Congress. At the same time, Jews have questions about what the Democratic Party stands for, particularly on Israel. Jewish Republicans are most identified as pro-Israel, which is one of their biggest image advantages over Democrats. Pro‑Israel advocacy and spending: Opinions are split on outside groups spending in primaries—about a third support such spending, a third oppose it, and many are undecided. Respondents are nearly evenly divided on whether aggressive outside intervention helps or harms U.S.–Israel relations. Antisemitism and public debate: A large majority say some criticism of Israel slips into antisemitic tropes, and a significant share also believes some defenders wrongly label policy criticism as antisemitism. There is also concern about how antisemitism is becoming a part of the increasingly heated discussions over U.S.-Israel issues, by both sides. A large majority of U.S. Jews see too many critics of Israel using language about Jews that plays into antisemitism, whether intended or not. At the same time, a majority of Jews feel too many supporters of Israel use claims of antisemitism to avoid legitimate debate over policy. Domestic Issues are Important: Democrats are viewed positively on healthcare, abortion rights, fair elections, and middle class advocacy, while Republicans are viewed as pro-Israel but excessively conservative and unwilling to oppose the President. The sample of respondents: The current distribution of Jewish voters by party affiliation: 69% Democratic, 24% Republican, and 7% Independent. Poll respondents are mixed gender, highly educated, and religiously plural within Judaism (Reform and unaffiliated are the largest). About one‑third belong to a synagogue, but religious practice varies. Jewish women Voters: There are more female Democrats likely to hold reinforcing views, contributing to the party's electoral advantage, thereby fueling the midterm margin. The partisan divide is even larger among women. Nearly three-quarters (74%) of Jewish women identify as Democrats, including 50% who are strong Democrats, and 24% who identify as Democratic Socialists. Likely Jewish women voters are supporting the Democrats in the generic vote: 78% Democratic, 19% Republican, and only 3% undecided. The Democratic vote margin increases significantly with age among Jewish women. Women ages 18-29 vote +46 Democratic, rising to +60 among those 40–59 and +58 among those 60 and older. These margins exceed those of the overall Jewish electorate, where voters ages 40–59 and 60+ both register a +48 Democratic advantage. The strength of Jewish identity also follows a consistent pattern. Among women who place lower importance on being Jewish, the Democratic advantage is +74, compared to +61 among the overall electorate. Among those who place higher importance on being Jewish, Jewish women still lean more Democratic than the overall electorate, at +41 versus +36. Jewish women are also more likely to disapprove of Trump’s job performance and the current U.S. military action against Iran. They are four points more likely than the overall electorate to disapprove of Trump’s job performance (77% vs. 73%) and the U.S. military action in Iran (59% vs. 55%). Jewish voters combine strong civic engagement and a clear Democratic preference with nuanced views that favor protecting Israel while insisting on democratic oversight, strategic clarity, and careful political tactics. Well-positioned issues that resonate for candidates and organizations in the upcoming 2026 midterm elections include emphasizing support for Israel alongside respect for congressional authority, clear policy goals, and sensitive messaging on antisemitism. "This poll reinforces a simple truth that the Jewish community is not monolithic, and the Jewish vote should not be taken for granted. Their concerns extend beyond Israel and Iran. It also indicates a critical need for education about Israel's history and the meaning of Zionism. These needs have never been more urgent than they are today," said Barbara Goldberg Goldman, JEI Chair. These analyses are based on the final release of the findings of a national survey of 800 Jewish registered voters, with an oversample to yield 600 Jewish women. The survey was conducted for JEI by The Mellman Group using a high-quality online national panel from March 13-23, 2026. The margin of error for the sample as a whole is +/- 3.5% at the 95% level of confidence (higher for subgroups).

JTA: Most American Jews oppose AIPAC spending in Democratic primaries, survey finds

April 14, 2026
The survey was released one week after another conducted by the Mellman Group and commissioned by the Jewish Electorate Institute found that a majority of American Jews have “not heard much” about the role that pro-Israel lobbying groups have played in this year’s early midterm primaries.  The poll, which surveyed 800 registered Jewish voters March 13-23, found that just 11% of American Jews had heard a “great deal” about “the role pro-Israel groups have played in the early 2026 primaries,” while 27% said they’d heard “some” about it. Meanwhile, 62% said they’d either heard “not much,” “none at all” or that they don’t know.